EA 11/26/17

You're now chatting with a random stranger. Say hi!

Stranger's college: mit.edu

You: Hello, 23. Most interested in a dialogue about Effective Altruism with a focus on lessening absolute poverty

Stranger: WAIT

Stranger: HELLO THERE

Stranger: Fellow EA

You: ya?

Stranger: Development economics PhD

Stranger: Who are you

You: Electrical Engineering undergrad

You: near vegetarian

Stranger: Dang, I get on Omegle for the first time in months, and bump into a global poverty EA in less than two minutes.

Stranger: Same, same

Stranger: "Vegeflexible"

Stranger: So what's on your mind?

Stranger: I'm Nils, btw.

You: Adam

You: What do you think about AI risk?

Stranger: Nice to meet you, Adam

Stranger: I think it's probably very important, but it's also pretty far outside my wheelhouse, so I direct my energy at other things.

You: I probably think so too

You: I wouldn't want to fund it

Stranger: As an EE undergrad, you have time to switch tracks, though

You: I don't know why I'd want to go into CS

You: Damn, this is just so unexpected

You: Most people on Omegle confuse EA for regular altruism

Stranger: I do a dose of that too haha

You: And then go off about some political theory that has nothing to do with anything

You: So how is your lifestyle different from other college students?

Stranger: Hm. Not much different, to be honest. Somewhat more frugal. Less socialization.

You: Or what are some things that you believe that are different?

You: What makes you unique?

Stranger: I don't know of much about me that is both interesting and makes me unique.

You: Doesn't have to be interesting ;)

You: What's your dream job?

Stranger: Devo economist at an NGO, perhaps. Gates Foundation?

Stranger: Family lives in Seattle, so that would be nice.

Stranger: Less pressure than academia.

You: What's Devo mean?

Stranger: Development, sorry.

You: Oughhhh, ok ok

You: So I just gave a brief 20 min presentation about absolute poverty to my local Engineers Without Borders

Stranger: Nice! What were your main points?

You: I touched on the definition of extreme and relative poverty, and why that's meaningful. What the crowding out effect is related to philanthropy (and I should've made the explicit point why some donation just based on good intention could be bad). And what the poverty trap is in a nutshell

You: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_poverty#/media/File:USAID_Projections.png

Stranger: I always say the most important things to know are 1. There's a lot of poverty and 2. It's getting better fast.

You: The 40% in 1990 going down to 20% in 2010 for extreme poverty

You: What other main points would you touch on?

Stranger: Hmmmm

Stranger: We don't know of any silver bullets

Stranger: Conflict is a major source of poverty

Stranger: It's strongly gendered – hits women and children harder

You: But I mean concepts, condensed ideas...ok

You: yes empowering women

Stranger: Employment is amazing if we can figure out how to create it

Stranger: Most "aid" is spent by developing country governments

Stranger: Overpopulation is probably not a first-order problem

Stranger: Corruption is probably not a first-order problem

You: What's a first-order problem?

Stranger: Oh, a "most important" problem

Stranger: Economese, sorry

Stranger: As opposed to a second-order problem which has a smaller marginal effect

Stranger: It's most important to identify and fix first-order problems

You: This is good stuff. I'm glad our paths crossed

Stranger: Likewise. :-)

Stranger: Diseases that stunt/cripple have a much higher burden than diseases that kill

Stranger: And diseases that kill very young or very old have a lower burden than those that kill young adults

You: Interesting interesting

Stranger: This is why malaria and HIV are much worse than cancer or influenza

You: Ohhh

You: Crap, this is really going to help me

You: I'm alone here in Platteville

Stranger: Yeah, Cambridge is one of the epicenters

Stranger: I'm lucky

You: So I'm interested in how to categorize people within a group

Stranger: What's the nearest EA hub?

You: Madison

You: But I'm never there long enough

You: Milwaukee too, same excuse

You: How would you categorize, into broad groups, members in your EA group?

Stranger: Hm

Stranger: Area of primary interest, and career type.

Stranger: Earning/research/other.

You: Aw, I was hoping for a category that was more scandalous

Stranger: Like?

You: Hmmm

You: something along the lines of certain people who don't really care I guess

Stranger: Virtue signallers?

You: In Engineers Without Borders there are people who just want to go on the trip abroad

Stranger: Oh, that's another categorization: utilitarians, deontologists, virtue ethicists, nihilists

You: damn, how many are there? in Cambridge

Stranger: EAs?

You: ya

Stranger: Maybe a few hundred who show up to one of the main groups regularly.

Stranger: There are about… five large groups?

You: Jesus

You: That's insane!

Stranger: Yeah. Here, SF, and Oxford are hotbeds.

You: How about extremists?

Stranger: I'm not sure I know any.

You: probably a subcategory of the utilitarians

You: To give you a picture, I've contemplated bank robbery

Stranger: I know people who engage in thought experiments along those lines, but nobody who actually acts on them.

You: What kind of thought experiments do you recall?

Stranger: Political assassination, targeted pandemics, eugenics

You: Wough

You: That's a little too extreme

You: I mean, even a utilitarianist still should value basic human right, such as life

You: But you haven't heard of some type of non-violent (no killing) bank robbery before?

Stranger: A utilitarian doesn't necessarily recognize "rights".

Stranger: I have.

You: I wouldn't call them rights either, but...eh...ok

You: So what did they conclude about the bank robbery or similar idea?

Stranger: Almost certainly a bad idea.

Stranger: Illegal actions have a huge number of downsides.

You: Besides getting caught?

Stranger: That should not be discounted, but yes. Erosion of social norms is a big one.

You: One bank robbery?

Stranger: Yes.

You: I supppppose you could take the slippery slope argument

Stranger: It has a marginal benefit and marginal cost.

Stranger: Also, the upside to bank robbery is terrible.

Stranger: The average haul is a couple thousand dollars if I remember correctly.

You: I mean, movie-like bank robbery

You: But yes, I know what you're talking about

You: Spy movie type

You: or something ingenious like Inside Man

You: (not like Hell or High Water)

You: sorry if that sounds confusing, bit of jumbled ideas

Stranger: Movie-bank robberies are very difficult to pull off

You: I realize

You: The more realistic "Hell or High Water" type robberies (small bills) would be the type with too much risk and not enough offset benefit

You: I mean the Mission Impossible type

You: Team of elite individuals

You: pooling their skills and expertise

Stranger: Yeah you're not going to succeed where career criminals have failed.

You: I don't know what you mean

You: I didn't say I have such elite skills

You: It would be strategic to plan something much later in one's life though. Lots of time to hone one of the needed skill sets

Stranger: How much do you expect a heist to take?

You: How much what?

Stranger: cash

You: I'm just talking, just like the crazy negative utilitarians have outlandish ideas.

You: Oh, pull in

You: I think that would depend on the type of heist, type of bank, location

You: Why, what do you think is the break-even point?

Stranger: I don't think there is one.

Stranger: A typical branch probably has like $10-20K

Stranger: And anything larger will get you caught

Stranger: You're better off just… working.

You: Well, even that--there are marked bills

You: And I think you bring up a really good point

You: Instead of honing one's skill-set in a particular area of the heist, they could just do freelance work (such as programming)

Stranger: Think of it this way

Stranger: If there were a break-even point, then criminal enterprises would do bank robberies

Stranger: They don't

You: I disagree

You: Criminal enterprises don't care about exploiting women, hurting other people

You: Robbing something with an elite team...agh, someday I hope an EA will indulge me with this idea

You: =)

Stranger: I don't understand. If they have no morals, doesn't think give them even more latitude for success?

Stranger: *this

You: Oh, back to why criminal organizations don't rob banks? They have their hands in far less rigorous dealings. Like I mentioned, elite team--what criminal organization has individuals they specially train or contract to do such jobs?

You: I presume selling drugs, with no super-specialized knowledge or experience, is a hell of a lot simpler than conducting a heist

Stranger: If there is profit in it, it should happen

Stranger: Unless you think there is a shortage of unscrupulous people

You: Tens of years of training and planning?

You: What criminal organization would think of that?

Stranger: One that thinks like you

You: Yes, but like I said, other dealings is much simpler to manage

You: If they were me, and I was you, and you were the other guy--they would still be into making money though all the much simpler, and quicker methods of illegal money making

You: human trafficking, prostitution, drug distribution, money laundering,etc

You: Specifically because they don't care about ethics or the suffering of other people--that's why they wouldn't try to pull something off that would not hurt anybody